More than George Bush, more than Ariel Sharon, even more than Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein is the driving force in geopolitics today.

Not that the toothless Iraqi dictator is actually doing anything, beyond tormenting his own people. Hussein's mere presence is an affront to the war regime running Washington that's bent on reordering the world by dropping bombs, missiles and dollars all about.

Cheney's hopscotch across the Middle East was an attempt to enlist Arabs for a final rumble in the desert with Hussein's rusting military machine. Everywhere the vice president went, though, he was told that Washington lacked credibility.

As the New York Times put it: "The Bush administration's push for strong action against Iraq is running up against Arab perceptions that the United States has not done enough to restrain Israel."

Bush is talking openly of finishing off Hussein's regime. In May, the United Nations will conduct its annual review of the weapons inspection regime, which Iraq terminated in 1998. The White House admits it "won't take yes for an answer" even if Hussein agrees to unfettered access. He appears in no mood to do so in any case.

Many observers don't expect an attack until the fall. Estimates call for a quarter-million troops, which would take months to assemble. The U.S. Army, Navy and Air Force have already moved their central headquarters to Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Also delaying an invasion is a shortage of satellite bomb kits.

There's not much of a plan beyond overwhelming firepower and the "Afghan model," arming and organizing Shiites in the South and various Kurdish groups in the North.

However, Iraq could fragment into a Kurdish North, A Shiite South, and Sunnis in between. The North has significant oil deposits, which could provide the basis of an independent Kurdish state. This would only embolden neighboring Turkey's rebellious Kurds. A big reason Ankara is unenthused about invading Iraq, but not so much that it won't join the war.

"Axis of evil" designee Iran backs their fellow Shiites across the border. For decades, Washington's Middle East policy has been based on neutralizing both Iran and Iraq. That's part of the reason Bush Senior didn't go all the way to Baghdad the first time. The U.S. feared Iran would be strengthened by grabbing the oil-rich southern marsh regions.

The only question in the Pentagon's mind is how long it will take to obliterate the mostly conscript Iraqi military. The Republican Guard are better motivated and equipped, but it's questionable how hard they'll fight for a doomed regime. Hussein may disperse his forces to towns and cities, making it hard for the U.S. to engage him without causing the level of civilian casualties that would stir up the Middle East pot.

Hussein will certainly lob missiles at Israel, possibly ones laced with toxins. It's no certainty; that would remove any restraints on U.S. forces. But drawing in Israel would likely inflame the Middle East, as Hussein has promised in the event of an attack.

Most governments in the Middle East would welcome the end of Hussein's regime. But they are afraid their own stability would be threatened by a public angered by a U.S attack on Iraq while Israel tramples the Palestinians.

"DADDY BEAR"
It's that reality that spurred the rhetorical shift in U.S. policy. Just a few months ago as the Taliban were melting away in Afghanistan, the White House felt no need to listen to the Arabs. Bush said Arafat was "enhancing terror" and endorsed Israel's position that it could bomb civilian centers, but had no obligation to negotiate while being "subjected to terror."

Now, it's Israel that's being criticized for savagery. The U.S. pushed a U.N. Security Council resolution endorsing a Palestinian state. And U.S. mediator Gen. Anthony Zinni has been sent back to the Middle East to push for a cease-fire and renewed talks.

But Zinni is far from neutral. In January, he called Arafat an "incorrigible liar" and the "capo di tutti capi," basically the boss of all mafia bosses. In contrast, Sharon left Zinni feeling love struck, whom he actually termed a "daddy bear." Zinni's delayed arrival in the Middle East also left the Palestinians seething; Sharon and his ministers took full advantage to continue bombing the densely populated camps.

The Saudis have provided some of the impetus for the new peace push. Crown Prince Abdullah's stage-managed announcement that the Arab world would offer normal relations to Israel in exchange for a complete withdrawal to the 1967 borders was at first dismissed by the White House. There was nothing new in it, just a more explicit restatement of a decades-old position, and Jordan's monarch, Abdullah II, made a similar offer months ago that was ignored.

BAIT AND SWITCH
The Bush Administration did an about-face when it became evident that the Arabs were wary of being duped again on Iraq. One Egyptian lamented that back in 1990 Egyptians believed "shoulder to shoulder" they and the U.S. would end Iraq's occupation of Kuwait, and then Israel's of Palestine. Instead, they got sold a false bill of goods named Oslo.

One might call the new plan Oslo II. It's the same bait and switch. Under Oslo, the Palestinians had to make all their concessions up front, recognizing Israel, agreeing to set aside pre-1967 claims, in the hope Israel would respond by ending its occupation, which it never had any intention of doing.

This time, U.N. Security Council Resolution 1397 calls for the implementation of the Tenet Plan, followed by the Mitchell Plan. Named for the CIA director, the Tenet Plan is essentially aimed at curbing the intifada through the use of CIA operatives monitoring the Palestinian security forces, while only requiring Israel to stop its aggression.

The Mitchell Plan, for former U.S. Senator George Mitchell, also makes more demands of the Palestinians in terms of curbing their resistance, and ending "incitement" in the media, something the right-wing Israeli press does all the time, while only demanding that Israel "freeze" its settlement building. Nothing itself about the settlements in general or the occupation, both of which violate U.N. resolutions and international treaties and laws.

The Saudi plan is that in name only; the details are being filled in by the White House. The goal is to get Arabs to formalize relations before any deal is made, while the Palestinians will agree to certain "security guarantees," and to leave large settlement blocks untouched in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, ensuring a fragmented state with no real power. It also leaves unresolved the issue of water rights, Israel's occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights and the right of return for the 1948 refugees.

Nonetheless, Arafat clutched at the diplomatic straw like a drowning man. The plan does afford him some short-term gains: It forces Arab governments, which had been shunning him, to reaffirm the centrality of the Palestinian cause to the Middle East conflict, it isolates Sharon internationally, and it's bolstered anti-occupation forces in an increasingly polarized Israel. (In one poll, 46 percent of Israeli Jews favor ethnically cleansing the Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza, and 31 percent favor forcing out Israeli Arabs.)

Cornered, Sharon dropped his insistence on a seven-day period of absolute quiet from the Palestinians, which he had been using to block any talks. This was too much for the extreme right; two ministers bolted from his cabinet. Sharon's "unity" government still holds over 60 percent of the Knesset, but his popularity is fading with multiplying Israeli deaths and a rudderless government. Waiting in the wings is Former Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, who has no strategy beyond more force.

THE WAR ON THE CAMPS
The full-scale assault of Palestinian cities and refugee camps involving 20,000 troops, hundreds of tanks, and squadrons of made-in-the-U.S.A. Apache helicopters and F-16 fighter jets was a hammer meant to beat the Palestinians into submission.

Unable to deliver on his twin promises of peace and security, Sharon can only offer vengeance. Sharon told his fellow Israelis recently that his peace plan is to kill lots of Palestinians until they cry uncle.

Sharon, speaking in a widely circulated interview a year ago, can't even imagine an end to the conflict with the Palestinians. "The War of Independence has not ended... A normal people does not ask questions like 'will we always live by the sword' ...the sword is part of life."

The invasion has been planned since the early days of the intifada (itself based operation "Field of Thorns" drawn up in 1996), before any terror attacks against Israelis had even been launched. The IDF drafted plans in October 2000 to topple and exile Arafat, destroy the PA, and kill and arrest tens of thousands of security forces and street activists.

Over 150 Palestinians were slaughtered and many hundreds of others wounded in the first half of March. Few high-level activists were killed. The rifle-toting militants cut down were mainly low-level activists (many of whom complained that Arafat abandoned them). Eyewitness reports spoke of indiscriminate tank and helicopter fire throughout the camps. Many civilians were killed and wounded in their homes, which they were unable to leave.

Amira Hass, writing in Haaretz, observes, "For the IDF and the Israeli government it is important to speak about fighting, and to give the impression that both sides are equals, thus burying the fact that most of the Palestinian dead are civilians or members of the security forces, who, even if they were armed, stayed out of the fighting."

One commentator was scathing in his assessment of the invasion. "It turns out that the entire operation was nothing more than a temporary takeover of the living rooms of frightened families, the destruction of kitchens, demolition of ambulances, and the false arrest of hundreds of men, most of whom were released after they did their bit in the show. And after the army leaves the conquered areas, the armed men come back, the population buries its dead, and the next generation of suicide bombers is born."

The IDF claimed it was treating the detainees humanely. But its practice of blindfolding, handcuffing and writing ID numbers on the men was criticized by Holocaust survivors. The men were also abused, according to Palestinian author Muna Hamzeh. "As the soldiers approach each blindfolded man, they are spitting on him and beating him. One by one, the men are being taken into a side room inside the factory and interrogated. Masked Palestinian collaborators are at hand to tell the soldiers which of the men is an active member of the resistance. This is what Oslo has given us."

All manner of buildings have been systematically destroyed. LAW, a Palestinian human rights group, says the destruction includes, "civilian homes, workplaces, hospitals, ambulances, field clinics, schools, universities, churches and mosques; key infrastructure including water pipes/supplies and electricity lines."

No one remains safe from the fury. Physicians for Human Rights estimates at least 165 ambulances have been attacked since the intifada started. Prior to Zinni's arrival, every day seemed to be marked by another Palestinian medical worker's death, including the case of a doctor who twice received explicit permission from the IDF to leave his home to render aid, but was still obliterated by a tank shell.

Israel claims the ambulances are used to transport armed men, a charge the PHR notes remains unproven. In many instances, the wounded have bled to death while first aid was denied. According to various human rights group, including B'Tselem, the IDF has shot up some hospitals and blockaded others in the past few months. (A standard tactic during Sharon's blitzkreig through Lebanon 20 years ago.)

The U.N. Relief Works Agency estimates during the first 10 days of the invasion, over 1,600 homes were damaged. In just two camps housing 34,000 Palestinians--Balata and Jenin--almost one in four residences, 1,300 buildings, were damaged.

Far from cowing the Palestinians, they say the attacks have only stiffened their determination for true independence. With a half-cocked plan in the offing, Netanyahu in the wings, and 40,000 armed Palestinians in security forces who still haven't entered the fray, the stage is being set for an even greater explosion of violence down the road.

(A.K. Gupta, a former Baltimore activist, is a member of The Indypendent (NYC IMC) editorial collective.)