Americans - and the international community - were told to expect a short war in Iraq. Opposition to Saddam was so general in Iraq, we were encouraged to believe, that the US/UK forces would be welcomed as liberators and his regime would quickly crumble. Many if not most Americans accepted this line uncritically. A Gallup poll taken early in March showed that one-third of Americans polled expected the war to last less than a month and 41 percent said they expected a total of 100 or less American casualties.

Only when the war had already begun did Bush sound a less optimistic note and let on that Americans were most likely in for a long haul. By Sunday, March 23, the fourth day of fighting, it was clear to the US that their invasion was not being welcomed by Iraqis of any stripe. According to Arab News, on this day they Americans “learned first-hand that the Iraqi people do not want to be 'liberated' by them, and that the Iraqi army is likely to fight to the very last." As Salam Pax (the ‘Baghdad blogger’) observes, ‘There are no waving masses of people welcoming the Americans nor are they surrendering by the thousands.’

This lack of enthusiasm, to say the least, applies even to the Shia population in the southern half of the country, despite their longterm enmity to the Sunni Muslim regime, and the Kurds in the north, who are about to see a Turkish invasion of their territory (an invasion that will be publicly criticised but secretly endorsed by the US). Both groups were supposed to be automatic supporters of the US invasion. Both look like being anything but!

The stage has been set, therefore, for the worst possible outcome - a long war with widespread or even general opposition (opposition we were supposed to assume barely existed) and a great many casualties on both sides. This is the scenario that will precipitate Bush’s downfall. After the first flush of excitement (support for the war has climbed in the first week in all three belligerent countries, i.e., the US, UK and Australia), war weariness will set in, engendering a climate of disillusionment in which Americans will begin to ask themselves whether their country did not take a wrong turn in 2001, when it allowed George W. Bush to seize the White House.

Since 2001 clearly marks a date at which America chose between two alternatives, the instinctive push will be to revisit history and stage the 2000 election again, but this time with the alternative outcome. Americans will conclude that, whatever Gore turns out to be like, his presidency can only bring better than the myriad disasters that the Bush administration has inflicted upon the country.

A new Zogby poll shows that Gore remains the strongest contender to Bush: ‘Despite his three-month absence from national politics, Gore polled only nine points behind Bush (42% to 51%). The other Democrats lagged 12 to 33 points behind. ... The poll conducted by Zogby confirms Gore's continued popularity, even against well-known public figures such as Hillary Clinton. Gore was the choice of 42% of the respondents in the matchup against Bush, followed by Clinton (39%), Richard Gephardt (38%), Joe Lieberman (38%), John Kerry (36%), and John Edwards (32%). Gore also enjoys the greatest support among Democratic voters (74%), followed by Clinton (70%), Gephardt (70%), and Kerry (65%).’

None of the other Democrats are running strongly enough to pose a serious challenge to Bush in 2004. Most are relative newbies who haven’t been able to bring themselves to openly oppose the war, which will weaken their ability to benefit from the antiwar backlash we can expect in the coming months.

Gore has three things going for him: first, he spoke up early against Bush’s doctrine of preemptive war and, second, he has name recognition far in excess of Dean or Edwards. However, most importantly, the name “Gore” represents the different America that would have come into existence if Bush had never taken the White House.

Only the election of Al Gore, therefore, will fulfil America’s deepest wish - to turn the clock back to 2000 and run history the other way. Unless Saddam miscalculates badly and hands the war to Bush, Gore will be drafted as Americans grasp, right or wrongly, at their only chance to undo the unmitigated disaster that has been the second Bush administration.