(Cambridge, MA) Someone wrote "the lowest form of solidarity is generational." Perhaps. Yet a national poll, released today, by Harvard University's Institute of Politics, located at the University's Kennedy School of Government, finds 18-24 year-olds who plan to vote for the Democrat candidate in November strongly prefer Illinois' U.S. Senator Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton (70% to 30%) to be the Party's presidential nominee. The poll also finds a majority of likely young voters favor Obama (53%) in a hypothetical head-to-head contest against U.S. Senator John McCain (32%) but give Ms. Clinton a much smaller lead (44% to 39%) when matched up against the Arizona Senator.
The Institute of Politics Director and former U.S. Representative (R-IA) James Leach said, "The story of this presidential race could very well come down to which campaign can inspire and mobilize the youth vote the best. Young people are focused on the issues and challenges facing America", Mr. Leach said. "They care deeply about the war in Iraq, but like the rest of the country are increasingly concerned about the economy. They look forward to an honest and spirited discussion on how to improve the jobs picture and how to best deal with immigration issues."
The "on-line" survey of 2,452 18-24 year-old U.S. citizens was conducted by Harris Interactive for the Institute of Politics between March 11 and April 1, 2008.
When asked about the same match-ups and adding Ralph Nader as a candidate choice, Mr. Obama still holds his 21 percentage point lead over Mr. McCain (50%-29%-4%) and Ms. Clinton maintains an advantage over Mr. McCain as well (41%-34%-7% Mr. Nader)
In addition, the poll found: Religious Centrists (15% of young people today) are seen to be favoring a Democrat candidate. Splitting evenly in the 2004 contest , this group went 47%-47% for President Bush and U.S. Senator John Kerry (D-MA); Economy skyrocketed to the top as the most pressing issue of national concern and is the only issue both very important and highly relevant to young people; Political engagement levels among young people continue to increase, with 61% looking forward to participating in the 2008 presidential election; Twenty years from now, young people are confident the U.S. will be the leading military power, but not the top economic power, with 34% saying China will hold that role.
As a sidebar, when asked who they prefered between Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, 30% of America's 18-24 year-olds said Mr. Stewart while 26% said Mr. Colbert. Forty-nine percent of Republicans favor Mr. Colbert (21% mr. Stewart, 31% neither, while 43 percent of Democrats favor Mr. Stewart (31% Mr. Colbert, 26% neither).
Complete results are available online at www.iop.harvard.edu.