by B. Raman

Since June 25, 2006, there has been a ceasefire in the North Waziristan area of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, where the Pakistan Army, under US pressure, had launched a military campaign two years ago against the remnants of Al Qaeda and the Taliban operating from there and their local tribal supporters, who had set up a de facto Talibanised Sharia state in the area.

2. The de facto Sharia state arrested and executed suspected spies of the US and the Government of Pakistan, banned radio and TV entertainment programmes, burnt TV sets and vigorously enforced the Islamic laws. It allowed Pakistani jihadi organisations such as the Jundullah, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) to set up their training camps there where Uzbeck, Chechen and Afghan instructors trained volunteers from Pakistan and the Pakistani diaspora abroad.

3. According to some Pakistani police sources, at least two of the suicide British terrorists of Pakistani origin, who had participated in the London blasts of July, 2005, and some of those arrested in connection with a recently thwarted terrorist plot targeted against US-bound planes had been trained in one of the training camps in the North Waziristan area. In addition to the training camps of these Pakistani organisations, a training camp of the Taliban of Mullah Mohammad Omar, its Amir, and another of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) are also located in North Waziristan.

4. While the Jundullh camp was being run by Maitur Rehman, ,its Amir, who was previously in the LEJ and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the camp of the Taliban was being run by Jalaluddin Haqqani and that of the IMU by Tahir Yuldeshev, its Amir. Apart from the Afghan Pashtuns and the Uzbecks, the other foreigners present in North Waziristan were Chechens, Uighurs and some Arabs, mainly Yemenis, Saudis and Egyptians. All these foreigners were mainly the survivors from among those who were helping the Taliban and Al Qaeda before 9/11. They were originally based in Afghanistan and crossed over into the FATA when the US started its military action against the Taliban and Al Qaeda on October 7, 2001.Many of these foreigners have married Pakistani tribal women, who have given birth to children. The tribals do not look upon those married to their women as foreigners. They treat them as members of their own tribe. Only those who have not married their women are treated by them as foreigners.

5. According to the same police sources, Osama bin Laden himself and his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri live separately. They keep moving between North Waziristan, the adjoining Bajaur agency and the Chitral area adjoining the Northern Areas (Gilgit and Baltistan).

6. The FATA has a total area of 27, 220 sq.kilometers---about 2.6 per cent of the total area of Pakistan. It has seven tribal agencies--- South Waziristan, North Waziristan, Kurram, Orakzai, Khyber, Mohmand and Bajaur. Orakzai is the only agency which does not have a common border with Afghanistan. The remaining six agencies have a common border with Afghanistan.

7. There are six more pockets which are designated as tribal areas, but these are in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and are located in the Districts of Peshawar, Kohat, Bannu, Laki, Tank and Dera Ismail Khan. The combined tribal population of the FATA and these six pockets is 3.5 million.

8. Initially, all these terrorist remnants had taken shelter in South Waziristan. The Army, under US pressure, mounted an operation against them in 2003. These operations, in which the Army sustained heavy casualties, led to a ceasefire under which the local tribals agreed not to allow foreigners to operate in Afghanistan from sanctuaries in South Waziristan. In return, the Army agreed to release all those arrested and to withdraw its troops from the area.

9. Following this, the terrorist remnants moved to North Waziristan and started operating against the US-led forces in Afghanistan from their new sanctuaries there. While Mullah Dadulla Akhund, a Pakistani member of the Taliban, co-ordinated the Taliban forays into Afghanistan from sanctuaries in Balochistan, Jallaluddin Haqqani co-ordinated the Taliban forays into Afghanistan from North Waziristan and Yuldeshev co-ordinated the forays of the Al Qaeda and the IMU.

10. In December last year, when the situation in Balochistan deteriorated due to the increase in the activities of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and other Baloch nationalist organisations, the majority of the Corps Commanders was reported to have told President General Pervez Musharraf that the Army was not in a position to wage two-front war---one against the Balochs in Balochistan and the other against the tribals of the FATA for sheltering the foreign terrorist elements operating against the NATO forces in Afghanistan.

11. They reportedly pointed out that the activities of the Baloch freedom-fighters posed a threat to Pakistan's unity and territorial integrity whereas the activities of the remnants of the Al Qaeda and the Taliban did not pose a threat to Pakistan's unity and territorial integrity. They, therefore, urged that Musharraf should reach a cease-fire with the tribals in the FATA area and divert the troops deployed there in support of the operations of the US-led forces in Afghanistan to Balochistan.

12. Since the beginning of this year, Musharraf started shifting some of the troops and equipment given by the US for counter-terrorism operations in the FATA to Balochistan. He posted Lt-Gen (retd) Ali Muhammad Jan Orakzai, who is from the FATA, as the Governor of the NWFP, in which capacity he is also in charge of the FATA.

13. Lt.Gen.Orakzai, who has many friends from amongst the tribal elders in North Waziristan, persuaded the tribals to agree to a cease-fire from June 25, 2006, to enable the shifting of more troops to Balochistan. The cease-fire has held since then except for a few minor incidents. Lt. Gen. Orakzai constituted on July 20, 2006, a 50-member jirga (consultative council) of tribal elders to negotiate a peace agreement with representatives of the Government.

14. This peace agreement was signed on September 5, 2006. Azad Khan, a representative of the local Taliban, and North Waziristan's Chief Administrator Dr Fakhar-e-Alam signed the agreement at the football stadium of Government Degree College in Miranshah, the headquarter town of North Waziristan, in the presence of army commander Major General Azhar Ali Shah. A 10-member committee of tribal elders, clerics and administration officials was set up to monitor the progress and implementation of the agreement.

15. Under the agreement, the local Pakistani Taliban accepted the Government demand that cross-border attacks should not be launched into Afghanistan and no sanctuary should be given to foreign terrorists. They also agreed not to attack government buildings or security forces, and not to conduct “targeted killings” of government servants, tribal elders and journalists co-operating with the Government. In return, the Government agreed to stop air and ground operations; return all weapons and other material seized during operations; restore the privileges of tribesmen; and remove all check-posts.

16. A similar agreement signed in South Waziristan two years ago did not work. The Taliban, Al Qaeda and their supporters just moved to North Waziristan and started operating from there. It is likely that they would now move to Bajaur or some other agency and operate from there. The agreement covers only the forays of the terrorists from North Waziristan into Afghanistan. It does not cover their forays into Afghanistan from Balochistan.

17. The provision regarding the foreign terrorists who have taken sanctuary in this area merely says as follows: "They have resolved that all foreigners in North Waziristan will leave Pakistan, albeit those who are unable to do so for certain genuine reasons shall respect law of the land and abide by all conditions of the agreement. They shall not disturb the peace and tranquillity of the area." The provision for the departure of the foreigners is voluntary. It will be the responsibility of the tribal elders to persuade them to leave or to become law-abiding residents of the area if they choose to continue to live in this area. The Government has agreed that they will not be arrested and deported. Thus, bin Laden and Zawahiri can continue to live in this area without fear of being arrested and deported if the tribal elders certify that they are not violating law and order.

18. The fact that Musharraf has signed such an agreement even at the risk of causing concern in Washington, London, Ottawa and other NATO capitals is indicative of his serious concern over the situation in Balochistan after the massacre of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, the tribal leader, and some of his followers by the Pakistan Army and Air Force. The BLA has resumed its activities and there have been more attacks on the local gas pipelines.

19. His first national security priority now is to crush the Baloch freedom struggle.He is hoping that the peace agreement with the Talibanised tribals of North Waziristan would enable him not only to divert more troops to Balochistan, but also to seek the help of the Taliban elements in Balochistan in his operations against the Balochs.

20. The Pashtuns are in a majority in certain districts of Balochistan. Quetta, the capital, itself has a fast growing Pashtun population. For many years now, there has been a movement for the merger of the Pashtun majority districts of Balochistan with the NWFP to form a bigger Pashtun state to be called Pakhtoonkwa. Tension between the two communities had led to serious riots in Quetta in the early 1990s. Subsequently, the leaders of the two communities had come together and resolved not to let temselves be manipulated by the Army and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to make them fight against each other. The two communities have been living in close harmony since then.

21. Since December last year, apart from stepping up the military operations against the Baloch freedom-fighters,Musharraf has embarked on a policy of divide and rule. Many Balochs living in Punjab and other parts of the country were motivated by the Army to return to Balochistan and help the army in countering the activities of the Baloch freedom-fighters. He distributed to them arms and ammunition and the land and other property confiscated from the freedom-fighters. In the wake of the deterioration in the situation, he is trying to revert to the old policy of creating a divide between the Balochs and the Pashtuns. He is hoping that in return for his cessation of the military operations in North Waziristan, the Taliban elements in Balochistan would help him against the Baloch freedom-fighters.

22. The Miranshah agreement should be a cause for concern not only to the Balochs, but also to the NATO forces in Afghanistan. It is likely to lead to an intensification of the Taliban attacks in Afghan territory from Balochistan.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: itschen36-AT-gmail.com)