Strategic brilliance has never been an American virtue , but the last twenty years vindicate this assertion in a far more convincing manner.

I am surprised that the US Army has no general with spine to tell naieve old Quixotic Rumsfeld that what are you are doing is pure and unadulterated bull shit ! This is careerism par excellence and sycophancy of the worst type.

USA started its war against Islamists or Islamic Militants with a faulty premise that State Actors are the chief strategic targets . Iraq was thus attacked , blockaded , bombed and finally occupied.Afghanistan was also occupied with the belief that once it is occupied USA's strategic objectives of containing and eliminating Islamic militants would be achieved.

No attempt was made to understand that the Centre of Gravity has shifted to Non State Actors.The fact that today the USA is fighting not against a state or a bloc but against people with a belief spread all over the globe .

The key strategic developments are thus as following :--

The USA stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan in a long hot low intensity war with no end in sight while China , Russia and Iran watch USA's ordeal with immense strategic satisfaction.Its a long hot war and does not need much external financing.There is evidence that Iran and Syria are assisting the anti US forces in Iraq and with a sound strategic rationale , while Pakistan , China , Iran and Russia are giving some sort of covert aid to anti US forces in Afghanistan.
Pakistan and Iran have finally gone to the strategic conclusion that both are future US targets and survival of both lies in keeping the pot hot in Iraq and Afghanistan .
India feels with a sound strategic foresight that peace with Pakistan is mere lip service and true security of India lies in Pakistan's denuclearising and its Balkanisation .
The provinces of Pakistani South are disillusioned with Pakistan dominated by Punjabis and would seek independence in the next ten years.USA has a strategic convergence of interest here with the Baloch and even Sindhis since China is strengthening its foothold at Gwadar and in Sindh through various development projects.
The Islamists are gaining strength in Pakistan and now the country is deeply divided internally.
AFGHANISTAN:--The US strategy and even operational conduct of war is deeply flawed.It has weak physical presence and is relying on forces of dubious quality from Hungary , Italy , Rumania.Its main NATO allies the UK , Germany and Turkey have no interest in fighting . Their soldiers view Afghanistan as only a good tour of duty for saving some extra Euros and follow a Gandhi style type of pacifism .They dont have that burning desire to annihilate the enemy.I saw this closely at Kabul Kandahar and in many other parts of Afghanistan.I travelled three times from Kabul to Herat 1050 Km and did not saw a single US or NATO military vehicle.The Taliban were the rulers from Muqur at Ghazni till Shahr e Safa in Kandahar Province and from Maiwand till Farah Rud on the Kabul Kandahar Herat Road.As a matter of fact when we stopped for the night at a solitary road hotel in Dasht i Bakwa in Farah-Nimroz area we met about thirty burly Talibs and we chatted with them . It was difficult for me to slip aside and have my regular tripple shots of Smirnoff 50 % Vodka stored in a Nestle Mineral Water bottle.The Canadians are also a strange set of soldiers.With no motivation to fight or expose themselves , their soldiers are in Afghanistan for making an extra buck which they cannot do in ten years in poor Canada ! This is no way to fight a war where men panting to release hot lead are needed.Not these Chocolate Cream soldiers who will think ten times before firing .How can they face a shot fired in anger.The US soldier is a bulky man with heavy bullet proof jackets useless against roadside mines and giving the Afghans an impression that this man is afraid of fire.Paranoid in a counter productive manner which only produces hatred and disgust in the Afghans.I was travelling in 2004 August from Kandahar to Ghazni and encountered a three vehicle convoy of US Armoured Cars.They did not let any vehicle overtake them from Shahr e Safa till Kalat i Ghilzai a distance of more than 100 Km.The Afghan National Army lacks the miltary spirit and overbearing US advisors training them are no source of solace.There is considerable propaganda , much of it false , that US troops sodomise young Afghans and patronise Afghan prostitutes.It is counter productive.The drug mafia is strong and now drug trafficking is Jihad.Overbearing US companies like KBR , USPI etc are no better.Largely composed of Rednecks or East European US citizens with no love lost for Muslims these companies are also a strategic liability rather than an asset for USA.The main Taliban base areas are Helmand, Zabul , Kandahar,Uruzgan and Ghazni in Afghanistan and the area between Gulistan and Musa Khel Bazaar in Pakistani Balochistan, a vast area which even four Pakistani infantry divisions cannot cover.What do the Pakistanis have any way , two divisions , the 33 and 41 deeply committed against the Baloch freedom fighters with one brigade at Zhob , one at Khuzdar , one at Sibi and four brigades involved in Marri and Bugti agencies.If the war is fought like this the USA will achieve not even 5 % in ten years and China and Russia are the winners.
Iran :-- The USA lacks the strategic resolution to deal with Iran and Iran will be a very tough nut to crack.But Iran is a far cry with USA's strategic blues in Afghanistan and Iraq.There is a sound strategic rationale in dealing with Iran since Iraq and Afghanistan were outer bastions while Iran is the citadel.The USA must deal with Iran first and divide and quit Iraq and let the Taliban stew in their own sauce.Use Uzbeks against Talibans since they are good fighters . Adopt re-settlement of population in Afghanistan.
My conclusions are based on three years of study of US tactics in Afghanistan and my experiences as an ex officer of Pakistan Army and presently my experiences as an advisor with Balochistan Liberation Army.