Baluchistan : Pakistan´s Achilles heel

By Daya Krishna

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Baluchistan is one of the four states of Pakistan. It is the largest state because it accounts for 43 per cent of the area of Pakistan, but only 4 per cent of the population of Pakistan reside in Baluchistan.

By far, the most important fact about Pakistan is that it has developed a preference for removing its Prime Ministers through violent measures is evident from the cases of Liaquat Ali Khan, (1947-1951), Z. A. Bhutto (1971-1977), Zia ul Haq (1977-1988), and the latest is the frequent attempts on the life of Pervez Musharraf who became the Chief Executive of Pakistan in October 1999.

The Balauch lay claim to a history of about 2,000 years. They had secretly campaigned for independence during the final days of British Raj and were shocked by the inclusion of Baluchistan in Pakistan in 1947.

Violence is an integral and pervasive part of Baluchistan, both in the urban and the rural areas. A full scale war was fought between Balauch Freedom Fighters and the Pakistan Army during the 20 months period up to the end of 1974. This resulted in the death of 5,000 rebels and 3,000 Pak Army persons. The basic reason for this war was the visit of Bhutto to Iran in 1973. A White Paper of Pakistan says:

“In Iran, Bhutto was shown a plan of greater Baluchistan which included some areas of Iran. On his return, Bhutto ordered total decimation of the movement for Baluchistan and assigned this job to General Tikka Khan, the renowned butcher of Bangladesh.

The importance of Baluchistan

Baluchistan is important mainly because:
1. It is economically and strategically important.
2. Its subsoil holds a substantial portion of Pakistan´s energy and mineral resources.
3. It is a potential transit zone for pipeline transporting natural gas from Iran and Turkmenistan to India.
4. Two of Pakistan´s three navel bases are situated on the coast of Baluchistan.

Causes of the crisis
Basically, today´s crisis in Baluchistan was provoked ironically, by the central government´s attempts to develop this backward area by undertaking a series of large projects. Instead of cheering these projects, the Balauch responded with fear that, with a showing down of population they would be dispossessed of their land and resources, as also their distinct identity. In addition, three fundamental issues that are fueling this crisis are, expropriation, marginalisation and dispossession.

Resurgence of Balauch nationalism
The Balauch lay claim to a history of about 2,000 years. They had secretly campaigned for independence during the final days of British Raj and were shocked by the inclusion of Baluchistan in Pakistan in 1947. In spite of being divided among scores of tribes and clans, the Balauch stand united by the vision of a larger Baluchistan and take inspiration from Bangladesh becoming free in 1971.

If Pakistan is divided at some time in the future, a free Baluchistan would become a new zone of instability. Yet, unless Pakistan changes its policy towards Baluchistan dramatically, the possibility of Baluchistan becoming a free country cannot be ruled out.

The Balauch movement cannot prevail over a determined central government with superior military strength. Still, it can have a considerable nuisance value. The risk of a prolonged guerrilla movement in Baluchistan is quite real.

Balauch leaders have made it known that they would be satisfied with a generous version of autonomy. In the absence of their winning autonomy, the medium and long-term consequences of the struggle for freedom cannot be predicted today. The outbreak of another civil war in Baluchistan between the nationalists and the Pakistan Army cannot be ruled out if the minimum demands of the Balauch are not met.

Almost six decades of intermittent conflict have given rise to a deep feeling of mistrust towards the central government. The Balauch will not forget Musharraf´s recent promises and the insults hurled from time to time at certain nationalist leaders. The projects which were trumpeted as the means of achieving Baluchistan´s development and integration have so far led to only advance of the Pakistan Army in the province by the removal of the local population from their lands. That benefits only the army and its henchmen—mostly from Punjab.

Balauch nationalism is a reality that Islamabad cannot pretend to ignore and by making promises of development that are rarely kept. The promise is likely to enter a new phase of violence with long term consequences that are difficult to predict. This conflict could be used in Pakistan and elsewhere as a weapon against Pakistan government”. Such a prospect would certainly affect Pakistan. It is ultimately Islamabad that must decide whether Baluchistan will become its Achilles heel or not.