Iraq's Draft Constitution, If Approved, Could Provoke Civil War

Interview with Mel Goodman, former CIA analyst and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, conducted by Scott Harris

As Iraq's constitutional referendum approaches, attacks by insurgents have escalated, resulting in carnage that is only expected to get more intense. Car bombings, ambushes and mortar attacks carried out by combatants resisting the U.S. occupation and opposed to the proposed constitution, have many observers concerned that the Oct. 15th vote may fan the flames of conflict, possibly catapulting the nation into a full-blown civil war. News reports alleging that death squads targeting Sunni Muslims have been operated by the Iraqi government's Interior Ministry have only heightened tensions.

One of the most contentious provisions of the draft constitution would sanction the autonomous zone in the oil-rich Kurdish north and allow for a similar zone in the Shiite south. Many Iraqis of Sunni descent oppose the autonomous zones, fearing that this will inevitably lead to a break-up of Iraq into three separate nations. Other objections have been raised about the status of women under the proposed new constitution, where family disputes, such as divorce, child custody and inheritance, will be referred to religious courts where women have little or no rights.

The draft charter can be defeated if a two-thirds majority vote "no" in three of Iraq's 18 provinces -- a goal that some Sunni leaders say they will campaign for. The October referendum will be followed by a December vote for a new Parliament. Between The Lines' Scott Harris spoke with former CIA analyst Mel Goodman, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy. Goodman assesses the dangers connected with Iraq's constitutional referendum.

Contact the Center for International Policy by calling (202) 232-3317 or visit their website at: www.ciponline.org

Related links:

Mel Goodman's articles: www.ciponline.org/nationalsecurity

"Government Accused of Death Squads in Iraq," by Sinan Salaheddin, The Associated Press; Oct. 7, 2005

Middle East Report website www.merip.org

"Bush League Diplomacy: How the Neo-Conservatives are Putting the World at Risk," book by Mel Goodman, published by Prometheus

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